Inside Story

As waters recede along small streams and secondary rivers, flooding is just getting underway along the largest rivers and related problems may last well into the spring.

As AccuWeather reports, rains have ended over the Tennessee, Ohio and Mississippi river basins, but runoff from 8-16 inches of rain over just a few days will continue to surge into larger rivers and lead to moderate to major flooding that could persist for weeks. 

The combination of severe weather and flooding has claimed the lives of at least 23 people, including young children, since late last week. The amount of rain that fell over a four-day stretch was rare, only occurring once every 100 to 1,000 years over a broad area, based on the historical average.

“AccuWeather experts estimate that the economic loss from the severe weather and flooding in recent days in the middle of the nation is between $80 billion and $90 billion,” said Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. “Unless property owners have specific flood insurance, losses and repairs will most likely not be covered by standard policies.” As of Tuesday morning, 21 river gauge sites were at major flood stage, and 212 locations across the central U.S. were at or above flood stage, spanning multiple rivers and tributaries.

“The Kentucky River at Frankford Lock, Kentucky, has crested just under the all-time record of 48.47 feet. Records at the location along the river date back to at least the early 1800s,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Glenny said. In Kentucky alone, more than 500 roads were closed due to high water this past weekend.

Water levels on the small streams and some secondary rivers will begin to drop in the coming days. However, the number of locations on the largest rivers — such as the Ohio and lower Mississippi — will reach a major flood stage and trend higher. The larger the river, the longer the flood cycle lasts. Some roads may be closed for an extended period, which could isolate some communities.

At multiple points along the Mississippi River— including near its confluence with the Ohio River — water levels are projected remain at major flood stage for a 10- to 14-day period this April. As the surge slowly works downstream, moderate to major flood levels are not projected to occur in parts of the Mississippi Delta region until around the third and fourth weeks of the month.

Water spilling into unprotected areas along the river, including farmland, could remain for several weeks. Even after floodwaters recede, some fields may remain inaccessible to equipment needed for plowing and planting. The high water levels and fast flow on the Mississippi River will force reductions in tug and barge operations. Tugboats will not be able to push as many barges in a single load to maintain safe navigation.

In areas where flooding has occurred or where waters begin to recede, property owners will face major cleanup challenges, including mud removal and mold damage. Water supplies may be contaminated by chemicals or bacteria and will need to be boiled or tested before use.

Some weakened structures may collapse without notice, and jagged debris can also cause injuries. People involved in cleanup operations should ensure their tetanus immunizations or boosters are up to date. Wild animals, including snakes, may have been displaced by the flooding and could pose a danger.

There is some good news in terms of weather for much of the region. The weather pattern will shut off the flow of Gulf moisture for the next week or so, reducing the risk of widespread showers and thunderstorms. While a few spotty showers or storms with brief gusty winds and small hail are possible, little rain is expected across much of the middle and lower Mississippi and Ohio valleys through the upcoming weekend at least. Where downpours occur, they will tend to be brief and not contribute substantially to river levels.

However, periodic cold conditions can hinder cleanup efforts into the weekend. Parts of the region also face the risk of frosts and freezes, which could damage blossoming and early planting.

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